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Just in Case, County Planning for Bird Flu

(The Howard County Times) -- By Andrei Blakely

Although the potentially deadly avian flu has infected only about 200 people worldwide, Howard County officials are developing a strategy to prepare for a widespread outbreak of the disease.

The county is in the process of creating procedures that police, firefighters, health officials, businesses and public schools would follow in the event of an outbreak of the disease.

The plan is expected to take several years to complete, said Dr. Penny Borenstein, Howard County's health officer.

The H5N1 strain of influenza, known as the avian flu, which has infected birds in large numbers, is more dangerous than other forms of the flu virus because it has proved lethal in about half of those people it infects, Borenstein said.

The preparation for the bird flu is be part of a county response strategy that also would deal with outbreaks of smallpox and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, that infected East Asian residents in 2002.

In order for a bird flu pandemic to occur here or elsewhere, the strain of the disease would have to become able to spread more easily through human populations than it currently does and to reach America, Borenstein said.

County officials are preparing for a worst case scenario because they have no way of knowing if the virus will occur in the United States, Borenstein said.

"We would be hard pressed to have a full response if it would hit tomorrow," she said.

Human impact scanty

Only about 200 people have been infected with the virus throughout the world and the disease shows no indication of spreading in a sustained manner, Borenstein said.

The World Health Organization is investigating an outbreak of seven cases of the flu in an extended family in Indonesia that recently has led to six deaths. Three of the confirmed cases spent the night together in a small room April 29.

Although officials are seeking an outside source of the disease, they have not ruled out human transmission.

A widespread outbreak of the bird flu could potentially infect 20 to 40 percent of Howard's population, based on past experience with large outbreaks of diseases, Borenstein said.

No vaccinations are available to combat an outbreak of the flu, Borenstein said, although several are being developed. Without vaccines, health officials would be looking at ways to prevent the spread of the disease through quarantines and social distancing.

Health officials are working with care providers to prepare for scenarios in which resources such as hospital beds become exhausted, she said.

"Our ability to respond will depend on the severity of the pandemic," she added.

'No one knows'

Planning how to combat a pandemic outbreak of the avian flu is the best way to prevent a disaster, said Richard Krieg, president of the Horizon Foundation, a nonprofit that helps to fund programs related to health care in the county.

"No one knows that it's going to happen, but in order to be sensible we need some prior planning," he said.

Officials of Horizon have worked with those in county government to form an emergency response network of police, fire department, educators, businesses and community members that prepares to meet such disasters as disease outbreaks.

Part of the response would have to come from the business community, said Richard Story, executive director of the Howard County Economic Development Authority.

About 70 percent of the businesses in Howard employ 10 or fewer people. If too many workers become sick, then providing many of the community's needed services could be hampered, he said.

"We need to develop mechanisms to make the business community aware of the severity of the situation," he said.

Only a matter of time

Pandemic outbreaks of diseases occur roughly every 24 years and some scientists believe it is only a matter of time before the next one hits, Borenstein said.

A pandemic occurrence of Spanish Flu in 1918 and 1919 caused 500,000 deaths in the United States and as many as 50 million worldwide. The outbreak is considered the worst ever, Borenstein said.

To help combat an outbreak of the flu, people should get flu shots, wash their hands frequently and avoid people with active signs of respiratory disease, health officials said.

E-mail Andrei Blakely at Andrei Blakely@patuxent.com